Q2 2025 Review and H2 Outlook

Gold demand rose modestly in Q2 2025, increasing 3% year-over-year to 1,249 Tonnes, with the total market value soaring 45% to $132 billion. The gains were driven overwhelmingly by investor appetite, as safe-haven demand surged in response to geopolitical instability and record gold prices. Investment flows into gold-backed ETFs were especially strong, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty tied to trade policy shifts, central bank credibility concerns, and broader macroeconomic volatility. 

Bar and coin demand also posted robust year-over-year growth, with the first half of 2025 marking the strongest H1 for retail gold investment since 2013. Investor interest was supported by persistently high inflation in many emerging markets and rising tensions around fiscal policy in the U.S. and Europe. Together, these factors made physical gold an attractive hedge. 

Central bank demand, while still positive, slowed compared to recent years. Net purchases totaled 166 Tonnes in Q2, placing buying at the lower end of recent ranges. Nonetheless, official sector demand remains structurally strong, with many central banks continuing to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. 

Jewellery demand showed a sharp volume decline in most markets due to affordability constraints from elevated gold prices. However, in value terms, jewellery demand rose, reflecting the higher price environment. 

On the supply side, global gold supply grew 3%, driven by modest increases in mine output and recycling. Recycling volumes, however, were less responsive to high prices than expected. 

Looking ahead, investment demand is expected to remain firm in H2, while jewellery demand may stay under pressure unless prices ease.